War on the Korean Peninsula: how big is the threat?

The article contains complex analysis the situation that developed on the Korean Peninsula as a result of the crisis of inter-Korean relations in 2013. The military-technical, strategic and political aspects of the confrontation are considered.

M.: Russian the University of Economics named after G.V. Plekhanov, 2011.

Zaitsev Y. K., Perfilieva O. V., Rakhmangulov M. R. et al. M.: Publishing House of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, 2011.

The manual provides an analysis of the role of international organizations and institutions in the implementation of international development assistance policies, primarily the UN and the institutions of the UN system, the World Health Organization, the G8 and the G20, the International Monetary Fund and the institutions of the World Bank Group, the World Trade Organization and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Contribution international institutions in development is viewed through the prism of their place in the global architecture of development assistance, interaction with national governments, donors and partners of development programs, the history of the formation of development issues on the agenda of organizations and institutions. Separately, the manual provides recommendations for Russian Federation in terms of developing a national strategy for promoting international development in terms of the existing experience of cooperation and interaction with key players in international development assistance policy.

The guide is intended to be used within the framework of training courses, advanced training courses for development assistance professionals or programs to raise awareness of a wide range of Russian audience in development and international development assistance.

If Russian nationalism did not win at the beginning of the last century, it will certainly not win now. Then he had immeasurably better opportunities for promotion to leading positions.

Analysis modern society, permeated with media, is conducted from the standpoint of an ethnomethodological approach and is an attempt to answer the cardinal question: what are the observed orderings of events broadcast by mass mediators. The study of rituals proceeds in two main directions: firstly, in the organizational and production system of the media, focused on constant reproduction, which is based on the transmission model and the information / non-information distinction, and, secondly, in the analysis of the perception of these messages by the audience, which is the realization of a ritual or expressive pattern that results in a shared experience. This signifies the ritual nature of modern media.

The book contains complete and comprehensive information on the history of imperial Russia - from Peter the Great to Nicholas II. These two centuries became the era when the foundations of Russia's might were laid. But it was the same time that caused the fall of the empire in 1917. The text of the book, sustained in the traditional manner of chronological presentation, includes fascinating inserts: “ Characters"," Legends and rumors "and others.

Humanity is going through a change of cultural and historical eras, which is associated with the transformation of network media into the leading means of communication. The consequence of the “digital split” is a change in social divisions: along with the traditional “haves and have-nots”, there is a confrontation between “online (connected) versus offline (not connected)”. Under these conditions, traditional intergenerational differences lose their significance, belonging to one or another information culture, on the basis of which media generations are formed, turns out to be decisive. The paper analyzes the diverse consequences of networking: cognitive, arising from the use of "smart" things with a friendly interface, psychological, generating network individualism and increasing privatization of communication, social, embodying the "paradox of an empty public sphere". The role of computer games as "deputies" of traditional socialization and education is shown, the vicissitudes of knowledge, which is losing its meaning, are considered. In conditions of excess information, the most scarce human resource today is human attention. Therefore, new business principles can be defined as attention management.

In this scientific work the results obtained during the implementation of project No. 10-01-0009 "Media rituals", implemented within the framework of the HSE Science Foundation Program in 2010-2012, were used.

On Saturday, April 15, the DPRK celebrated the Day of the Sun - the next anniversary of the birth of the founder of the republic, Kim Il Sung.

Donald Trump also offered his gift to the North Korean people - he sent a powerful squadron led by the aircraft carrier "Carl Vinson" to the shores of the Korean Peninsula. The US President has threatened to strike North Korea if Kim Jong-un launches a fireworks display in the form of a ballistic missile test. "North Korea is a problem. And this problem will be solved," the owner of the White House explained.

Throughout the past week, Russian experts competed in describing war scenarios. But most alarmists made a fundamental mistake. They believe that North Korea is essentially the same as Ukraine and Syria, only located at the other end of the world.

In fact, the conflict over North Korea is unique - there is a high level of threat there, but a low probability of starting a real war.

Rules of the game

On the Korean peninsula, everyone hates each other, they exchange threats (the phrase "we will answer the insults with nuclear annihilation" is regularly repeated in official statements by North Korean officials), but at the same time, neither side is ready to strike first.

The North Korean elite understands that any war on the Korean Peninsula will end with the capture of Pyongyang, and then goodbye beautiful life. The Americans, Japanese and South Koreans, in turn, understand that the cost of taking Pyongyang will be extremely high, and it’s not even just the military losses that the allies will suffer in the process of destroying the million-strong and (unlike Saddam’s) motivated North Korean army.

And not only in nuclear contamination. First, there will be no Seoul - in the event of a war, the South Korean capital, located 50 kilometers from the border, will be razed to the ground by North Korean long-range artillery.

Secondly, what to do with the defeated North Korea? Integrate into the South? Experts assure that the cost of even the peaceful reintegration of the DPRK into the Republic of Korea is several South Korean GDP, and in the case of the war-torn North, the price increases even more.

Finally, where is the guarantee that China will not enter the war to protect the DPRK (which, we recall, entered the last war, and it was not even embarrassed by the presence of nuclear weapons in the United States.

The scenario of a limited strike (for example, against North Korean nuclear facilities) is also inapplicable. Most of the objects are located underground and protected by rocks, so American experts do not guarantee their destruction. In addition, the strike will not be limited - in the event of an attack on North Korean nuclear facilities, Pyongyang regards this either as the beginning of a war and delivers an all-out retaliatory strike, or as a slap in the face of Kim Jong-un and strikes back in proportion, which, in the logic of the spiral, causes a response from the side US and South Korea and leads to war. With all the consequences.

That is why not a single American president has dared to strike at the DPRK, and not a single high-profile crisis on the Korean Peninsula (and over the past 25 years there have been so many that there are not enough fingers and toes to count) has led to war.

All parties perfectly understood the rules of the game, saw the red lines and did not cross them. They approached them, exchanged threats, and then carefully crawled away.

The Donald Trump Factor

Some assured, however, that this time the North Korean algorithm might not work, because it had a new variable - Donald Trump. An unpredictable American president may either not understand the red line, or step over it like a cowboy.

However, the key mistake of these "some" is that they really believe in this image of Trump. In fact, the American president has so far behaved in foreign policy albeit adventurous, but very logical.

So it was during this aggravation around the DPRK - Trump deliberately played on this image of himself, demonstrating his readiness to step over the red line. In this way, he put pressure on China so that Beijing would make concessions and, in particular, put pressure on North Korea, made it more accommodating and thus provided Trump with an image victory over another part of the "axis of evil."

The adventurism of the situation is in the erroneous opinion of the Americans regarding the capabilities of the Chinese. The United States believes that since China is the main supplier of food and fuel to the DPRK, it means that Xi Jinping can force Kim Jong-un to do whatever he wants on the call.

This is, to put it mildly, not true. Relationships between China and North Korea are reminiscent of the relationship between an adult and a teenager. North Korea not only emphasizes its independence from China in every possible way (including the elimination of North Korean generals close to the PRC, as well as Kim Jong-un's older brother, who, according to some sources, had connections with Chinese intelligence), but sometimes does things to spite the breadwinner. For example, it organizes missile launches during a sensitive visit to China by a high-ranking Japanese delegation.

Pyongyang behaves this way because it is well aware of Beijing's unwillingness to stop supporting the North Korean regime, because the collapse of this regime will cost the Chinese very, very dearly. Namely, billions in losses for the economy, millions of refugees, hundreds of thousands of homeless soldiers of the North Korean army with heavy weapons, possible nuclear contamination, American bases near the Chinese border.

And the DPRK retreats a little only when the degree of discontent in China reaches a boiling point - only in order to blackmail its western neighbor again later.

Correct answer

Actually, now China, concerned about the "Trump factor" and tried to demonstrate this point to Pyongyang. Among the actions that the public saw were the refusal to buy North Korean coal and the temporary suspension of Air China flights to the DPRK "due to the sale of insufficient tickets."

At the same time, the Chinese tried once again to explain to the dull-witted the danger of the situation. “If the war really starts, then everyone will lose. “No one will be the winner,” said Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. out of control." The PRC, he said, is ready to support any dialogue - official or unofficial, bilateral or multilateral.

Ultimately, China failed to solve the problem. In addition to a grandiose military parade with missiles (including new missiles for submarines), the DPRK also hosted the promised missile tests.

And although the inhabitants of North Korea themselves did not know about them (the rocket exploded at the start), the world did.

It seemed that Trump was trapped - since he promised, if you please, bomb. However, he pulled out. After persistent public requests not only from China, but also from South Korea not to strike, the US administration decided not to strike, but to rely on the containment strategy (that is, it did exactly what all administrations before it did).

Apparently, the measures of this containment will be announced during the visit of US Vice President Mike Pence to South Korea and Japan that has begun. Probably, we will talk about new exercises (where Kim Jong-un will already be in a weak position - the DPRK will loudly resent, threaten even louder, but act according to the rules and not strike the first blow), as well as strengthening military-political cooperation with South Korea and Japan.

Naturally, not only against the DPRK, but also to contain China. Which, perhaps, was the ultimate goal of Trump's strategy in the current North Korean escalation. Who then will call him an ignorant president?

Over the fight Russia is unlikely to be able to stay

In order to understand how likely new war on the Korean Peninsula, let's try to "scan" the positions and aspirations of its possible participants.

The DPRK's approach is very clear - upholding its choice at any cost. The North Korean leadership has nowhere to retreat - it will be impossible to explain the slightest concessions to the Americans to the army and the population, who are invariably instilled with the idea of ​​the invincibility of the country and the infallibility of the leader. Giving up sweat and blood, sleepless nights, half-starving, fighting sanctions against missile programs and nuclear development is not only a surrender to the enemy, it is also a catastrophic fall in the authority of Kim Jong-un, who personally pays maximum attention to missile issues. If the leader forged this formidable sword himself, then will he remain in the role of leader, voluntarily putting this very sword on the ground?

Yes, from the point of view of our liberals, Pyongyang is already sinful because it put on nuclear missile armor, violating the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and a host of other agreements .

But if you look merciless facts in the eye, you should still admit that India and Pakistan did it earlier than North Korea, not to mention Israel. And no one even thinks of exerting violent pressure on them.

But the same Pakistan is a country where the central government does not control the entire territory, where clashes between groups of armed citizens often occur. Under these conditions, it is problematic to guarantee the safety of nuclear weapons. At the same time, North Korea, with its calm internal political situation, is not famous for anything like that. So, Pyongyang's aspirations are partly understandable, especially since even if the current status quo is maintained, opponents will tighten the sanctions noose around the neck of the DPRK, which will inevitably lead to curtailment of production in the country's most important sectors of the economy and collapse.

The main opponent of the Land of Juche Ideas, Washington, is trying with all its might to knock the formidable sword out of the hands of its rival. This is justified in different ways - both by references to the same NPT, and by concern for the security of their allies.

AT this moment the main driving force is the desire of the eccentric owner of the White House, Donald Trump, to assert himself in big politics and increase his rating. This requires a small victorious war - the Tomahawk attack on the positions of the Syrian government troops had only a temporary effect. A "continuation of the banquet" is required. A better candidate than the recalcitrant third Kim is simply not to be found. In this case, the Yankees do not care deeply that millions of people may die as a result of a cowboy raid - nothing, because blood will not be shed on the lawn in front of the White House, so you can fight to the last South Korean or Japanese, besides, a hotbed of tension is created near the borders of one of main geopolitical rivals - China.

The position of the latter looks contradictory - it is not very clear why support the aspirations of the Americans to strangle the DPRK and settle near the borders of the Middle State, keeping at gunpoint not only the most important missile and naval bases, but also the capital city of Beijing itself. The policy of our eastern neighbors now has a dual character - on the one hand, it is necessary to establish relations with the new administration of Donald Trump in order to preserve the overseas market, on the other hand, one must not forget about one's own interests, which often run counter to the manners of the world hegemon. The spokesman for the sentiments of the first type is not only the liberal intelligentsia of the most populous country in the world, but also part of its top leadership. A different point of view is held by the conservative part of the Chinese, among whom there are many military men. The current head of China, Xi Jingping, has yet to win unquestioning authority among them - until recently, most of the generals and officers gravitated towards the former head of China, Jiang Zemin, who still retains authority among people in uniform. There were frequent cases of ostentatious disobedience of Xi. In order to get rid of such an undesirable legacy, a large-scale military reform, tailored according to Western patterns, was launched, during which hundreds of thousands of officers and generals could be retired. In order to increase the base of support, Xi needs credibility, and this is earned only by commanding troops in a real conflict, during which one can eliminate another drawback of the army - the lack of combat experience, as the Chinese military has repeatedly stated (it seems that Vietnam in 1979 has already been forgotten) need success. Just such an opportunity is the burning ember on the Korean Peninsula.

At the same time, Beijing will pursue the goal of eliminating the recalcitrant Kim Jong-un in order to put a more acceptable candidate on the Pyongyang throne. To do this, you need to act quickly and decisively, preventing the Americans and South Koreans from taking positions.

Another goal is to weaken Seoul as much as possible as a rival in trade and economic affairs. Yes, due to dumping, the South Koreans managed to squeeze steel and shipbuilding out of the market, but luck in trade wars, like in any other, is a changeable thing.

They rub their hands in anticipation of a tidbit in Tokyo. A cherished dream is coming true - to weaken South Korea, which managed to noticeably squeeze Japan out of the world market of semiconductors and consumer electronics, where the "samurai" were already resting on their laurels. The second cherished desire is also being fulfilled - the elimination of North Korea as the main threat, which allows us to focus on other areas, including Russia. It is worth noting that in last years our island neighbors have succeeded to the maximum in turning the Self-Defense Forces into a real army. Amendments have also been made to the basic law, which allow the use of the Self-Defense Forces to protect allies outside the territory of Japan. For example, to repel an attack on an American ship carrying Japanese refugees. If the conflict on the Korean Peninsula flares up, such a situation will either turn up by itself or will be orchestrated. And again, the descendants of the samurai, like air, need combat experience.

Seoul's plans are clear - to finally deal with the existential rival in the North, to unite the country, to get nuclear and missile weapons in their hands, in order to become one of the great powers, to keep the neighbors at gunpoint. Then, the South Koreans dream, even the United States will not be their decree.

In general, in this case, a nationalist monster with a nuclear sword will come to the forefront of world politics, which will begin to make claims against its neighbors, and, first of all, against us.

An additional reason is the opportunity to freeze the political situation in South Korea, the vector of which is currently directed against the right-wing conservatives who have been holding power for the tenth year already. These gentlemen forget that in the flames of war they can easily burn out. But, nevertheless, many of them are ready to go to the end. Such determination frightens even the Americans, who have been horrified more than once when revealing the intentions of the South Koreans to arrange a provocation against the North during the US-South Korean exercises. So the greatest interest of all in containing the DPRK is shown by the southerners.

Now, with regard to the military preparations of the parties. To start hostilities, you need to concentrate a sufficient number of troops. The parties to the conflict have already begun to carry out activities aimed at misinforming the enemy. A vivid example is the message about the arrival of an aircraft carrier group led by John Stennis to the Korean Peninsula by April 15th. However, apparently, this formation will arrive there no earlier than the end of April, when other “floating airfields” can also catch up. If this happens, there will be much more cause for concern. The same applies to reports of a concentration of Chinese troops on the border with the DPRK, some of them from the Fujian military region, on which Xi Jingping has special hopes. If people in uniform from the Middle State really are on the borders of North Korea, then we can talk about the high probability of war. All other reports about the daily sorties of American reconnaissance aircraft, about the alleged readiness of Japan to take part in hostilities are worthless. Some of them are generally disinformation, such as articles about the evacuation of the population from Pyongyang. At this stage, despite the presence of the interests of various groups, which were discussed above, the likelihood of war is still a big question.

At the same time, as far as our country is concerned, it is in vain, as some people think, that the conflict on the Korean Peninsula will not affect us. Above the fight of Russia do not stay. If a fire breaks out at the threshold, we willy-nilly have to go to the accommodation additional contingents troops in the Far East.

A blow could also be dealt to our plans for the economic development of this region. So, not everything is so smooth. The main thing now is to clearly capture all the nuances in the development of the situation, and be ready for anything.

Especially for "Century"

The article was published as part of a project using state support funds allocated as a grant in accordance with the Decree of the President of the Russian Federation of 04/05/2016 No. 68-rp and on the basis of a competition held by the National Charitable Foundation.

• For North Korea, a nuclear strike on US forces is the only option for protection
• America will not be able to attack North Korea without huge losses
• South Korea will suffer the most damage, as well as the US economy

Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump

Moscow, August 10 - Vesti.Ekonomika. Now that the possibility of a war between the US and North Korea hinges on one tough tweet or careless statement, analysts have begun to consider different scenarios for this conflict.

Needless to say, this is a difficult task, since it has countless options, including because many other countries will be drawn into such a war.

Of course, war should be avoided, but it is already clear that a full-scale conflict on the Korean Peninsula will lead to massive human losses, but there will also be significant economic consequences.

The threat of using nuclear weapons in modern world seems completely unacceptable and even stupid step, but Kim Jong-un and North Korea is a "dark horse" for the world community, so this option is seen as quite real.

At the same time, so far we are talking exclusively about a strike on a base on the island of Guam. In fact, there are two bases on this island, and the total number of personnel is 7 thousand people. In fact, this is an American springboard for a possible attack on the DPRK, so it is not surprising that Pyongyang was so afraid of increased US air activity in the area.

In addition, a nuclear preemptive strike is the only chance for the DPRK to defend itself against the American threat.

From a formal point of view, North Korea is a militarized nation. With a population of over 25 million, the total military personnel alone is 6.445 million, of which 945,000 are active and 5.5 million are in reserve. According to GlobalFirepower.com, the DPRK has 944 different types of military aircraft and helicopters, of which almost 600 can be classified as attackers. There are more than 5 thousand tanks. Pyongyang also has a fairly large fleet, although its forces are concentrated on patrol ships. But there are also 13 ships and 76 different submarines.

But all this turns out to be completely unimportant, since about 15 thousand barrels of fuel per day are required to support this entire army. North Korea produces only 100 barrels per day, and proven reserves remain unknown. It is unlikely that they are significant. In the event of a real ground war, no one will dare to supply fuel to the DPRK, which means that this entire army will stand dead weight. Yes, fuel can be accumulated, but for one day of war it will take more than a year to accumulate, and if civilian consumption is added here, then the period increases significantly.

That is, for Pyongyang, the use of nuclear weapons is the only possible response to the threat from the United States.

Can the US launch a "surgical strike"?

The meeting of the UN Security Council on the situation on the Korean Peninsula begins in New York. A new cause for concern is the words of Donald Trump: the president promised that the United States would respond to the threats to the DPRK with "strength, fury and fire" that "the world has not yet seen."

In theory, the US military could conduct one or a series of quick and accurate strikes to deprive the DPRK of the use of its destructive and dangerous weapons, but this is unlikely to succeed.

Rocket launchers and nuclear facilities are scattered throughout the country, they are hidden in the mountains.

And if this "surgical strike" fails, then the lives of 10 million people in Seoul, 38 million people in the Tokyo area and tens of thousands of US military personnel in Northeast Asia will be at risk. At the same time, even if the United States destroys all nuclear weapons, Seoul will remain vulnerable to North Korean artillery attacks.

And in the DPRK, any attack, even a small one, will be considered as a full-fledged war, so they will respond with full force.

In this case, the US should signal to North Korea and China, Pyongyang's main trading ally, that they do not intend to attack North Korea.

Will Washington try to change the regime in North Korea?

Regime change is the United States' favorite trick, especially when war cannot be waged. But has anyone heard of the North Korean opposition? Yes, many hoped that Kim Jong-un, familiar with Western values, would make the country more open, but this did not happen.

It is obvious that he is not going to leave his post, nor will other ruling elites.

In addition, China, fearful of both a refugee crisis and US troops on its border, is likely to seek to support the existing regime.

The US will not decide on a full-scale war

A full-scale invasion would be required to quickly destroy North Korea's artillery, as well as prevent the use of missiles and nuclear weapons.

But for this it is necessary to gradually build up firepower, and this will be obvious to everyone. Actions like these could prompt North Korea to launch a preemptive strike. Therefore, now experts say that there will be no war between the US and the DPRK, since this is complete madness, including when analyzing costs and results.

Many analysts point out that it is urgent to start negotiations to prevent the situation from getting worse, as it is necessary to prevent North Korea from obtaining thermonuclear weapons or more advanced solid-propellant missiles.

Economic consequences of the war

The UN Secretary General is concerned about the situation around North Korea and is in favor of a diplomatic settlement. This was stated by his official representative - Steffan Dujarric. The UN Security Council is currently meeting behind closed doors.

North Korea's conventional forces, which include 700,000 men under arms and tens of thousands of artillery pieces, could wreak havoc on the South Korean economy.

If we are talking about a nuclear strike, the consequences will be even worse.

Many of the main targets in South Korea are located near the border with North Korea. Seoul, which accounts for about a fifth of the country's population and economy, is only 35 miles from the North Korean border and will be a prime target.

The experience of past military conflicts shows how big the consequences can be for the economy. The war in Syria led to a 60% drop in the country's GDP. However, the most devastating military conflict since World War II was the Korean War (1950-53), which resulted in the death of 1.2 million people in South Korea, and the GDP collapsed by more than 80%.

South Korea accounts for about 2% of global production. A 50% drop in South Korean GDP would directly wipe out 1% of global GDP. But it is also worth considering the indirect consequences. Chief among them is the disruption of global supply chains, which have been made more vulnerable by the introduction of just-in-time delivery systems.

In 2011, after the floods in Thailand, there were several months of delayed deliveries from some factories.

The impact of the Korean War would have been much stronger. South Korea exports three times more intermediate products than Thailand. In particular, South Korea is the largest manufacturer of liquid crystal displays in the world (40% of the world volume) and the second largest producer of semiconductors (17% of the market). It is also a key car manufacturer and is home to three of the largest shipbuilders in the world.

As a result, shortages of certain goods have been observed throughout the world for a long time. So, for example, it takes about two years to create a semiconductor factory from scratch.

The impact of the war on the US economy is likely to be significant. At its peak in 1952, the US government was spending 4.2% of its GDP fighting the Korean War. The total cost of the second Gulf War (2003) and its consequences is estimated at $1 trillion (5% of US GDP in one year). Long war in Korea will significantly boost the US federal debt.

Reconstruction after the war would have been costly. The infrastructure will need to be rebuilt. Massive spare capacity in China's steel, aluminum and cement industries means the revamp is unlikely to be inflationary and should instead spur global demand.

The US, a key ally of South Korea, is likely to bear a significant portion of the cost. The United States has spent about $170 billion on reconstruction after the worst recent wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. South Korea's economy is about 30 times larger than these two economies. If the US spent proportionately as much on reconstruction in Korea as it did in Iraq and Afghanistan, that would add another 30% of GDP to America's national debt.