Municipal budgetary educational institution "Ageevskaya secondary school No. 3" Tsentralny village
Global warming and climate change in the Tula region.
Completed by: 8th grade student
Strizhekozina Violeta.
Head: teacher
geography Romashova T.V.
p. Central
Information from the Internet.
Glossary The white stripe indicates the range of average annual temperatures in the Tula region Application
Questions from a survey of school students and the results obtained..
Do you believe in global warming
Yes, there are more natural disasters in the world - 48%
No, scientists are misleading all people - 23%
The weather forecast for today and tomorrow is enough for me - 29%
The results of the survey on the pages of Internet sites
Possible answer
Age, years
50 and older
I find it difficult to answer
Appendix No. 3
A graph clearly demonstrating global warming of the world's climate
Structure of greenhouse gas emissions in Russia
Regional scientific and practical conference for students in grades 7-11
"Elements of Earth"
Research
Global warming is a threat to humanity
Completed by: 7th grade student,
MBOU secondary school No. 22,
Petrenko Anna
Head: geography teacher,
Gritsenko Irina Alexandrovna
x.Krasnaya Ulka
Introduction…………………………………………………………………………………3-4
1 Theoretical part……………………………………………………………..4
1.1 Global warming……………………………………………………4
1.2 Greenhouse effect……………………………………………..4-5
1.3 Hypotheses explaining temperature changes……………5-6
1.4 Consequences of warming……………………………………..6-8
1.5 Areas of climate change on Earth…………………………..8-9
1.6 Measures to prevent global warming…………..9
2 Practical part……………………………………………………………10-11
Conclusion…………………………………………………………….11
References………………………………………………………12
Appendix………………………………………………………13-20
Introduction
The research work is devoted to one of the most important problems of all mankind - global warming of the Earth's climate. During the work carried out, an analysis was included on the following issues: “Causes of global warming”, “Greenhouse effect”, “Consequences of global warming”, “Measures to prevent global warming”.
Relevance of the problem and purpose of the study
Recently, the topic of global warming has become so discussed in society that it worries not only scientists, politicians, but also ordinary citizens. Almost every day we hear television news reports or read newspaper articles on this important issue. Today, this pressing topic concerns every inhabitant of our planet. No one can remain indifferent to the countless victims of natural disasters caused by global warming. Significant climate changes affect not only economic, cultural, but also other areas of activity. This problem also causes irreversible damage to the ecology of our planet. It is obvious that not all scientists have the same point of view, and not all politicians are ready to unite the efforts of different countries to prevent a global threat. In order to become better acquainted with this topic and try to find all possible ways to solve this problem, first of all you need to correctly understand the term “Global Warming” itself and consider all the reasons that cause these terrible disasters.
The purpose of this work is to investigate global warming and find ways to solve this problem.
Research objectives:
1. Consider global warming as a term
2. Study hypotheses of global warming;
3. Consider the causes of global warming
4. Assess the consequences of this process;
5. Suggest measures to prevent global warming.
Research methods used in this work:
1. Empirical
2. Statistical
3. Mathematical
4. Forecasting
5. Systematization, etc.
The work consists of introduction, two sections (theoretical and practical), conclusion, bibliography and appendix.
1 Theoretical part
1.1 Global warming
Global warming is the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth's atmosphere and the World Ocean. The scientific opinion expressed by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is that the Earth's average temperature has increased by 0.7°C since the end of the 20th century, "a large proportion of the warming observed in the last 50 years is caused by human activities "(see Fig. 1). This is primarily the emission of carbon, which causes the “greenhouse effect” as a result of the combustion of fossil fuels (coal, oil, gas, peat).
1.2 Greenhouse effect
This is the process by which the absorption and emission of infrared radiation by atmospheric gases causes heating of the atmosphere and surface of the planet.
The greenhouse effect was first discovered by Joseph Fourier in 1824. He proposed that the earth's atmosphere acts as a kind of glass in a greenhouse: the air allows the sun's heat to pass through, preventing it from evaporating back into space (see Fig. 2). According to this principle, evaporation occurs in greenhouses, which is why the term “greenhouse effect” originated. This effect occurs due to some atmospheric gases of minor importance, such as water vapor and carbon dioxide. If this did not happen, the earth would be 30° colder than it is now, and life on it would practically freeze. Therefore, the more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the more infrared rays will be absorbed, the warmer it will become.
In the natural biosphere, the gas content in the air was maintained at the same level, since its intake was equal to its removal. Currently, people are disturbing this balance by clearing forests and using fossil fuels. Currently, humanity annually burns 4.5 billion tons of coal, 3.7 billion tons of oil and petroleum products, as well as natural gas, peat, oil shale and wood. All this turns into carbon dioxide, the content of which in the atmosphere has increased by 30% over the past 50 years (see Fig. 3).
The main methods for tracking changes in nature are:
Historical documents and chronicles;
Archives of meteorological observations;
Measuring the area of the polar caps, ice, vegetation zones and tracking atmospheric processes thanks to satellite photography;
Analysis of fossil animals and plants;
Glacier observation.
Climate systems change both as a result of natural internal processes and in response to external influences (anthropogenic and non-human).
However, not all scientists can say with complete certainty what exactly causes climate change. There is a certain number of reliable assumptions recognized as working hypotheses by research centers in the USA, Russia and European countries.
1.3 Hypotheses explaining temperature changes
Solar Activity
All ongoing processes on the planet depend on the activity of our luminary - the Sun. Therefore, even the smallest changes in solar activity certainly affect the weather and climate of the Earth. There are 11, 22 and 90-year (Glaisberg) cycles of solar activity. It is likely that the observed global warming is associated with another increase in solar activity, which may decline again in the future.
Influence of the World Ocean
The oceans occupy three quarters of the planet's surface area and are a huge reservoir of solar energy. It determines the direction and speed of movement of warm ocean currents, as well as air masses on Earth, which greatly influence the climate of our planet. Currently, the nature of this influence has been studied rather poorly, for example, the average temperature of the oceanic layer is 3.5°C, and the land surface is 15°C, so increased heat exchange between the oceanic layer and the surface layer of the atmosphere can lead to significant climate changes. In addition, the amount of carbon dioxide dissolved in the ocean waters is more than 60 times higher than the total amount in the atmosphere, and as a result of some natural processes, greenhouse gases can flow from the ocean into the atmosphere, significantly affecting the Earth's climate.
Volcanic activity
Volcanic activity is also a source of aerosols of sulfuric acid and large amounts of carbon dioxide released during volcanic eruptions into the Earth's atmosphere. All recorded cases of volcanic activity were accompanied by a short-term cooling due to the release of dust, and subsequently a long-term increase in the average annual temperature due to carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere. This could significantly affect the Earth's climate.
Shift in the Earth's rotation angle and gradual change in orbit
According to the author of this hypothesis, these astronomical changes cause a gradual shift in the radiation balance of the planet, and therefore the climate. Astronomer Milankovitch, using this hypothesis, quite accurately (according to paleontologists) calculated the dates and duration of past ice ages on our planet. According to this theory, changes will occur over hundreds of thousands of years, but this hypothesis is unlikely to have anything to do with the relatively rapid global warming of the last century.
Currently, none of the alternative hypotheses has a significant number of supporters among climate scientists. The most plausible assumption seems to be that the global warming that we are observing is the result of the coincidence of a large number of factors at once, especially since planet Earth is a large living organism that we have studied too little yet.
1.4 Consequences of global warming
Global warming poses several specific dangers to humanity.
Rising sea levels
One of the proofs of global warming is the melting of glaciers. Observations have shown that in the last decade the area of glaciers has been noticeably decreasing. Their gradual disappearance will be a consequence not only of rising sea levels, but also of problems with the supply of fresh water, as well as a number of dangerous disasters for the entire planet as a whole. Rising sea levels will lead to the flooding of many coastal cities, economically important ports, and even the complete disappearance of small island states (see Figure 4).
Anomalous natural phenomena
An increase in the frequency of climate disasters: typhoons, hurricanes, floods, droughts, which are accompanied by a large number of human casualties (Fig. 5). The most vulnerable will be the coasts of oceans and seas, deltas of large rivers, small islands, the inhabitants of which, in order to avoid death, will have to move closer to the center of the continents (Fig. 6). Due to the expansion of areas prone to desertification and drought, millions of people will be forced to leave their homes, deprived of water and food. Already, the number of such migrants worldwide reaches 10 million people, and this figure is growing every year. The shortage of water resources will greatly increase in tropical and subtropical regions, whose residents are already experiencing acute water shortages.
Melting permafrost
A gas, methane, is conserved in the thickness of frozen rocks. It causes an incomparably greater greenhouse effect than carbon dioxide. If methane is released into the atmosphere as permafrost melts, climate change will be irreversible. Dozens of cities built on permafrost will simply drown. The percentage of deformed buildings in the north is already very high and is growing all the time. Due to the melting of permafrost, it will be impossible to extract oil, gas, nickel, diamonds and other minerals.
Spread of infections
Loss of biodiversity
If average temperatures rise by 5°C, humanity risks losing as much as 30% of plant and animal species. Such extinction will occur due to habitat loss through desertification, deforestation and warming ocean waters, as well as a failure to adapt to ongoing climate change.
Food problems
Reduction of territories suitable for highly efficient agriculture, which poses a threat to human food security. The greatest reductions in yields are expected in most tropical and subtropical regions, some of the most productive regions today and where a significant portion of the world's population lives. Food problems can also affect developed countries.
Economic consequences
As temperatures rise, so do the costs associated with climate change. Extreme weather conditions create extreme financial challenges. Severe storms and floods cause billions of dollars in losses.
1.5 Areas of climate change on Earth
The Intergovernmental Commission has identified a number of areas most vulnerable to expected climate change:
In the North African region there will be increased droughts and increased desertification (see Figure 7);
In Europe, rising temperatures will lead to reduced water resources and hydroelectric power generation, reduced agricultural output, deteriorating tourism conditions, reduced snow cover, increased summer precipitation and an increased risk of severe floods and catastrophic river floods (see Figure 8);
In Central and Eastern Europe there will be an increase in the frequency of forest fires, as well as a decrease in forest productivity;
In the Arctic, there is a noticeable decrease in the area of glaciation, a reduction in the area of sea ice, and increased coastal erosion (Fig. 9);
On the Antarctic Peninsula, temperatures increased by 2.5°C. The mass of Antarctic ice is decreasing at an accelerating pace (Fig. 10);
In Western Siberia, since the early 1970s, the temperature of permafrost soils has increased by 1.0°C, in Central Yakutia - by 1.5°C.
In northern Alaska, since the mid-1980s, the temperature of the upper layer of frozen rock has increased by 3°C, and the climate of fertile California has become somewhat colder;
In the southern regions, particularly in Ukraine, temperatures have dropped.
1.6 Measures to prevent global warming
The main task to prevent global warming can be formulated as follows: find a new type of fuel, primarily environmentally friendly, or change the technology for using current types of fuel. This means that it is necessary:
1. Reduce greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere.
2. Install treatment facilities to prevent emissions into the atmosphere in boiler houses, plants and factories.
3. Refuse traditional fuels in favor of more environmentally friendly ones.
4. Significantly reduce the volume of deforestation and ensure their reproduction.
5. Create laws to prevent global warming.
6. Identify the causes of global warming, monitor them and eliminate their consequences.
The problem of global warming must be solved at the international level, in accordance with a single international program drawn up with the participation of the governments of all countries and the world community, under unified international leadership. Today, the main global agreement to combat global warming is the Kyoto Protocol (agreed in 1997, entered into force in 2005). The protocol includes 192 countries of the world.
2 Practical part
Practical work “Greenhouse effect”.
Goal of the work: understand the theory of the greenhouse effect; build a demonstration model; find out how surfaces made of various materials absorb thermal energy.
Equipment: Vessel (3-liter glass jar), transparent lid, thermometer, table lamp, stopwatch, spray bottle, light and dark primer.
Progress:
1. Pour a 3-4 cm layer of dark soil onto the bottom of the vessel.
2. Moisten the soil with a spray bottle.
3. Place a thermometer in the ground using a cardboard stand, with the ball with mercury facing up. Cover with a glass lid (see Fig. 11).
4. Place the lamp 20-30 cm directly above the vessel so that the light falls on the thermometer ball.
5. Turn off the lamp and let the temperature drop to room temperature. Record this temperature.
6. Leave the lid on the vessel, turn on the lamp and record the temperature every minute for 20 minutes.
7. Turn off the lamp. Let the temperature drop to room temperature. Moisten the soil again and repeat the experiment by removing the lid of the vessel.
8. Build a graph.
9. Also do the work with light primer (see Fig. 12, 13).
Conclusion:
The phenomenon of the greenhouse effect is observed in cases where the vessels are closed with a lid, since the air has warmed up to a higher temperature (see Fig. 14, 15).
The temperature rises faster in a container with dark soil than in a box with light soil (see Fig. 16).
Questioning of students of MBOU Secondary School No. 22 and the results obtained.
Having studied the scientific literature and various hypotheses about global warming, I also wanted to find out the opinion of the children of our school, what they think on this issue.
“Do you believe in global warming on Earth?”
Results:
Yes, there are more natural disasters in the world -67%
No, scientists are misleading everyone - 14%
The weather forecast for today - tomorrow - 9% is enough for me.
Conclusion
During the research of this work, the following tasks were solved: we examined global warming as a term, studied the hypotheses and reasons for the increase in temperature on Earth, modeled the mechanism of the “greenhouse effect” in practice, and also conducted an independent survey regarding the topic of global warming.
After analyzing all the work done, I came to the conclusion that global warming poses a great threat to humanity, which is partly one of the reasons for the change in the climate balance on Earth. It is human activity that has acquired a global nature-forming scale. Until now, we have mainly been looking to take as much as possible from nature. But the time is coming to work just as purposefully on how to give back to nature what we take from it.
I believe that now every effort must be made to ensure that every production develops a closed cycle, that is, so that it is not thrown into the air or into rivers, but everything is recycled. Everyone will benefit from this. The state will receive additional products, and people will breathe clean air. And transfer energy use to alternative environmentally friendly technologies.
The sooner humanity understands its destructive activities, the greater the hope for preventing a global catastrophe.
Bibliography
1. Encyclopedia “Geography”, Moscow, Avanta+, 2005.
2. Dobrolyubova Yu.S., Zhukov B.B. 10 most popular misconceptions about global warming and the Kyoto Protocol. - M.: RREC, 2008.
3. Maksakovsky V.P. "Geographic map of the world." 2008
6. http://ru.wikipedia.org
7. www. climatechange.ru
8. www. krugosvet.ru
9. www. Gismeteo.ru
10. www.worldwarming.info
Application
Rice. 1 Graph of temperature increase by year.
Fig.2 Greenhouse effect
Rice. 3 Carbon emissions into the atmosphere from the combustion of fossil fuels from 1870 to 2007 in billion tons.
Rice. 4 Graph of changes in average annual sea level measurements. Red: sea level since 1870; blue: according to sensor data, taking into account tides; black: based on satellite observations. The inset shows the average global sea level rise since 1993, a period during which sea level rise has accelerated.
Fig.5 Tornado over the city
Fig.6 Flood in Europe.
Rice. 7 Water shortages in desert areas of Asia.
Rice. 8 Natural disaster in Europe.
Rice. 9 Between 1979 (left) and 2010 (right), the area covered by Arctic ice decreased markedly.
Fig. 10 Melting glacier in Antarctica.
Fig. 11 Glass vessel with dark soil (experiment)
Fig. 12 Glass vessel with light primer (wood shavings).
Rice. 13 Greenhouse effect (experience).
Rice. 14 The result of an experiment with light soil.
Rice. 15 The result of an experiment with dark soil.
Fig. 16 Results of comparison of temperature in vessels with light and dark soil.
By 0.86 degrees In the 21st century, according to forecasts, the temperature increase may reach 6.5 degrees - this is a pessimistic scenario. According to optimistic estimates, it will be 1-3 degrees. At first glance, an increase in the average temperature of the atmosphere does not greatly affect human life and is not very noticeable to him, and this is true. Living in the middle zone, it is difficult to feel this. However, the closer to the poles, the more obvious the impact and harm of global warming.
Currently, the average temperature on Earth is about 15 degrees. During the Ice Age it was about 11 degrees. According to scientists, humanity will feel the global warming problem when the average atmospheric temperature exceeds 17 degrees Celsius.
Causes of global warming
Around the world, experts identify many reasons that cause global warming. In essence, they can be generalized to anthropogenic, that is, caused by man, and natural.
Greenhouse effect
The main reason that leads to an increase in the average temperature of the planet can be called industrialization. An increase in production intensity, the number of factories, cars, and the planet's population affects the amount of greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere. These are methane, water vapor, nitrogen oxide, carbon dioxide and others. As a result of their accumulation, the density of the lower layers of the atmosphere increases. Greenhouse gases allow solar energy to pass through them, which heats the Earth, but the heat that the Earth itself gives off is retained by these gases and not released into space. This process is called the greenhouse effect. It was first discovered and described in the first half of the 19th century.
The greenhouse effect is considered the main cause of global warming, since greenhouse gases are released in one form or another by almost any production. Most emissions come from carbon dioxide, which is released as a result of the combustion of petroleum products, coal, and natural gas. Vehicles emit exhaust fumes. Large amounts of emissions are released into the atmosphere from conventional waste incineration.
Another factor increasing the greenhouse effect is deforestation and forest fires. All this reduces the number of plants that produce oxygen, which reduces the density of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
Greenhouse gases are emitted not only by industrial enterprises, but also by agricultural ones. For example, cattle farms. Conventional barns are sources of another greenhouse gas - methane. This is due to the fact that ruminant cattle consume a huge amount of plants per day and, when digesting it, produce gases. This is called "ruminant flatulence." Methane accounts for less than 25% of greenhouse gases, however, than carbon dioxide.
Another anthropogenic factor in the increase in the average temperature of the Earth is a large number of small particles of dust and soot. Being in the atmosphere, they absorb solar energy, heating the air and preventing the warming of the planet's surface. If they fall out, they transfer the accumulated temperature to the earth. For example, this effect has a negative impact on the snow of Antarctica. Warm particles of dust and soot when they fall heat the snow and cause it to melt.
Natural causes
Some scientists suggest that global warming is also influenced by factors to which humans have nothing to do. So, along with the greenhouse effect, solar activity is called the cause. However, this theory is subject to numerous criticisms. In particular, a number of experts argue that solar activity over the past 2000 years has been stable and therefore the reason for the change in average temperature lies in something else. In addition, even if solar activity did heat the Earth's atmosphere, this would affect all layers, not just the bottom.
Another natural cause is volcanic activity. As a result of eruptions, lava flows are released, which, in contact with water, contribute to the release of large amounts of water vapor. In addition, volcanic ash enters the atmosphere, particles of which can absorb solar energy and trap it in the air.
Consequences of global warming
The harm caused by global warming can already be traced. Over the past hundred years, the level of the world's seas has risen by 20 centimeters due to the melting of Arctic ice. Over the past 50 years, their number has decreased by 13%. Over the past year, there have been several large icebergs from the main ice mass. Also, due to global warming, heat waves in summer now cover 100 times more area than 40 years ago. In the 80s, extremely hot summers occurred on 0.1% of the Earth's surface - now it is 10%.
Dangers of global warming
If no measures are taken to combat global warming, the consequences will become much more noticeable in the foreseeable future. According to ecologists, if the average temperature of the Earth continues to rise and exceeds 17-18 degrees Celsius, this will lead to the melting of glaciers (according to some sources, this is in the year 2100), as a result, the sea level will rise, which will lead to floods and other climate disasters. Thus, according to some forecasts, almost half of all land will fall into the flood zone. Changing water levels and ocean acidity will change the flora and reduce the number of animal species.
The most significant danger of global warming is the lack of fresh water and the associated changes in people’s lifestyles, savings, all kinds of crises, and changes in consumption patterns.
Another consequence of such warming could be a serious crisis in agriculture. Due to climate change within continents, it will no longer be possible to carry out the usual types of agricultural industry in one territory or another. Adapting the industry to new conditions will require a long time and a huge amount of resources. According to experts, due to global warming in Africa, food problems may begin as early as 2030.
Warming Island
A clear example of warming is the island of the same name in Greenland. Until 2005, it was considered a peninsula, but it turned out that it was connected to the mainland by ice. Having melted, it turned out that instead of a connection there was a strait. The island was renamed "Warming Island".
Fighting global warming
The main direction of the fight against global warming is the attempt to limit the emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. Thus, the largest environmental organizations, for example, Greenpeace or WWF, advocate abandoning investments in fossil fuels. Also, various types of actions are carried out in almost every country, but given the scale of the problem, the main mechanisms to combat it are international in nature.
Thus, within the framework of the UN Framework Convention in 1997, the Kyoto Agreement on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions was concluded. It was signed by 192 countries around the world. Some have committed to reducing emissions by a specific percentage. For example, by 8% in the EU countries. Russia and Ukraine pledged to keep emissions in the 2000s at 1990s levels.
In 2015, the Paris Agreement that replaced the Kyoto Agreement was concluded in France; it was ratified by 96 countries. The agreement also commits countries to take action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to limit the rate of increase in the planet's average temperature to 2 degrees Celsius compared with pre-industrialization eras. The agreement commits countries to moving towards a green, carbon-free economy by 2020, reducing emissions and contributing money to a climate fund. Russia signed the agreement, but did not ratify it. The US withdrew from it.
The hypothesis put forward, that a change in temperature in a positive direction occurs from year to year, was proven during the study.
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Municipal educational institution
Nazarevskaya Secondary School
Global warming is a pressing problem of the century
Completed by a 6th grade student
Golts Vladimir
Head: geography teacher
Yapparova Lyudmila Valentinovna
Nazaryevo - 2013 -
Introduction
In recent decades, climate change on the planet has become obvious. The life of all inhabitants of the Earth directly depends on the state of the climate. Scientists studying climate have found a relationship between the influence of human activity on changes in weather conditions, and, as a result, global warming. Economic calculations show that if the growth rate of modern energy based on the combustion of fossil fuels continues in the future, the Earth's climate will change towards warming. Therefore, the problem of climate warming on our planet is extremely urgent.
It is well known that the average annual air temperature is steadily rising. Its increase is estimated at 0.7. °C for 100 years. Warming is accompanied by some negative phenomena: increased frequency of floods, hurricanes, and desertification problems. These problems harm both nature and humans. Therefore, it is important to know how the climate will change in the future, what negative consequences may await us in the future.
In our work, we set a goal to study changes in air temperatures in the Moscow region, based on the observations of students at our school.
The object of study is global warming.
The subject of the study is climate warming using the example of temperature changes in the Moscow region.
Our hypothesis is that the temperature changes in a positive direction from year to year.
Research objectives:
Explore the concept of “global warming”;
Consider the causes of global warming;
Analyze your own observations of change
Climate in the Moscow region.
Chapter 1. Global warming
- Global warming, its causes.
A lot is being said and written about global warming.
Almost every day new hypotheses appear and old ones are refuted. Global warming has already become a “global confusion” for many, and some have completely lost all interest in the problem of climate change. Let's try to systematize the information about global warming available in different sources.
Global warming- the process of a gradual increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean, due to various reasons (increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere, changes in solar or volcanic activity, etc.).
People first started talking about global warming and the greenhouse effect in the 60s of the 20th century, and at the UN level the problem of global climate change was first raised in 1980. Since then, many scientists have puzzled over this problem, often mutually refuting each other’s theories and assumptions.
Many scientists suggest that much of the warming observed over the past 50 years is caused by human activity. Scientists who dispute the view that human activity has played a significant role in the observed rise in temperatures are in a clear minority.
However, it is not known exactly how significant future climate changes will be.
Estimates from climate models cited by the IPCC say the Earth's average temperature could rise by between 1.4 and 5.8°C between 1990 and 2100. This is expected to lead to other climate changes, including rising sea levels and changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation. As a result, natural disasters such as floods, droughts, hurricanes, etc. may become more frequent, agricultural yields will decrease and many biological species will disappear. Although warming is likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of such events, it is very difficult to definitively link any specific event to global warming.
1.2. Greenhouse effect.
The cause of rising temperatures is the widely discussed anthropogenic greenhouse effect.
Very often as a synonymglobal warminguse the phrase"Greenhouse effect", but there is a slight difference between these concepts.
Greenhouse effectis an increase in the average annual temperature of the surface layer of the Earth’s atmosphere and the World Ocean due to an increase in the concentrations of greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, water vapor, etc.) in the Earth’s atmosphere. These gases act as a film or glass of a greenhouse (greenhouse); they freely transmit the sun's rays to the Earth's surface and retain heat leaving the planet's atmosphere.
The effect of the greenhouse effect is similar to the effect of glass in a greenhouse or greenhouse (hence the name “greenhouse effect”). Science knows that adding water, carbon dioxide or methane to the atmosphere, all other things being equal, will increase the temperature of the planet. These gases create a natural greenhouse effect, without which the Earth's surface temperature would be 30°C lower, making it uninhabitable. Therefore, it cannot be said that there is a dispute between those who “believe” in the theory of the greenhouse effect. Rather, what is disputed is the net effect of increasing the amount of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere, i.e. whether warming due to the greenhouse effect is compensated by changes in the distribution of water vapor, clouds, in the biosphere or other climatic factors. However, the increase in Earth's temperature observed over the past 50 years contradicts the theories of skeptics about the compensating role of the above feedbacks. Long-term observations show that as a result of economic activities, the gas composition and dust content of the lower layers of the atmosphere changes. Millions of tons of soil particles rise into the air from plowed lands during dust storms. During the development of mineral resources, during the production of cement, during the application of fertilizers and the friction of car tires on the road, during the combustion of fuel and the release of industrial waste, a large amount of suspended particles of various gases enter the atmosphere. Determinations of air composition show that there is now 25% more carbon dioxide in the Earth’s atmosphere than 200 years ago. This is, of course, the result of human economic activity, as well as deforestation, the green leaves of which absorb carbon dioxide. An increase in the concentration of carbon dioxide in the air is associated with the greenhouse effect, which manifests itself in the heating of the inner layers of the Earth's atmosphere. This happens because the atmosphere transmits most of the sun's radiation. Some of the rays are absorbed and heat the earth's surface, which heats the atmosphere. Another part of the rays is reflected from the surface of the planet and this radiation is absorbed.
Chapter 2. Climate change in the Moscow region
2.1. Climate of the Moscow region.
The Moscow region has a temperate continental climate with clearly defined seasonality; continentality increases from northwest to southeast.
The period with an average daily temperature below 0 °C lasts 120-135 days, starting in mid-November and ending at the end of March. The coldest month is January (average temperature in the west of the region is -10 °C, in the east -11 °C). In some years, frosts reached -45 °C. In winter (especially in December and February), thaws caused by Atlantic and Mediterranean cyclones are frequent; They are usually short-lived, their average duration is 4 days. The warmest month is July (+18-19°). The average annual temperature rises from 3.2° in the north to 4.5° in the south. Over the past 100 years, the absolute minimum was recorded in the city of Naro-Fominsk - 54 °, the maximum - in the cities of Kashira and Zaraysk - +39 °. The average daily temperature in the center of Moscow throughout the year is higher than on its outskirts by an average of 1-2°.
During the year, an average of 550-650 mm of precipitation falls in the region, two thirds in the form of rain, one third in the form of snow. The most precipitation falls on the Klinsko-Dmitrovskaya Upland, the least in the Kolomna region. A stable snow cover is formed
usually at the end of November, by the end of winter the snow cover reaches an average of 30 - 45 cm.
The Moscow region receives about 34% of the possible sunshine, the rest is absorbed by clouds. Completely clear days - 17%, completely cloudy - 32%. Clear days most often occur in April, cloudy days in November.
The strongest winds are observed in winter, the weakest in summer. Over the past 30 years, the average annual temperature in the region has increased by almost 1 degree, which we will try to prove below with our research.
2.2. Changes in average annual air temperature in the Moscow region based on our own observations over three years.
During geography lessons, sixth-graders at our school annually observe the weather in our region. In accordance with the scope and relevance of the problem of this work, we worked through their observation diaries over the past three years, and here are the results we received:
The average temperature in January 2010 was the coldest in three years at -16º, the following January was warmer by 8º, and in 2012 the temperature increased by another 2º (see Appendix).
In February we observe a slightly different situation: the warmest month in 2010 (-9 º). The following year, the February temperature drops to -11 º, and in 2012 it rises by 1 º.
The average monthly temperature in March is stable: in 2010 -2 º, in 2011 – (-2) º, in 2012 – (-3) º.
In April, an increase is observed by 2012: from +7 º in 2010 and 2011 to +10 º in 2012.
The average monthly temperature in March for three years is approximately the same: 2010 - +15 º, 2011 - +14 º, 2012 - +15 º.
In June, a slight increase is noticeable: 2010 - +17 º, 2011 - +19 º, 2012 - +18 º.
In July and August, over the course of three years, the average monthly temperature, on the contrary, decreased.
September and October - the temperature gets higher every year (September 2010 - +11 º, 2011 - +19 º, 2012 - +18 º; October 2010 - +3 º, 2011 - +6 º, 2012 - +7 º ).
In November, the highest temperatures were observed in 2012 - +3 º (in 2010 - +3 º, in 2011 - 0 º).
Average monthly temperatures in December 2010 – (-7 º), 2011 – (-1 º), 2012 – (-8 º).
According to the study, the increase in average monthly temperatures is not clearly visible, but by calculating the average annual temperature, our hypothesis is confirmed:
The average annual temperature in 2010 was +5.6 º, in 2011 - +6.5 º, in 2012 – +6.6 º. If we compare 2010 and 2012, the difference in average annual temperatures was 1 º. Warming is obvious.
2.3 Possible consequences and whether global warming can be prevented.
The Earth's climate was not constant. Warm periods gave way to cold ones - glacial ones. In general, over the past hundred years, the average temperature of the surface layer of the atmosphere has increased by 0.3–0.8 ° C, the area of snow cover in the northern hemisphere has decreased by 8%, and the level of the World Ocean has risen by an average of 10–20 centimeters. These facts cause some concern. Will global warming stop or will the average annual temperature on Earth continue to rise? The answer to this question will appear only when the causes of ongoing climate change are precisely established.
If Earth's temperature continues to rise, it will have a dramatic impact on the global climate. The tropics will experience more precipitation as the extra heat increases the amount of water vapor in the air. In dry areas, rainfall will become even less frequent and these areas will turn into deserts, forcing people and animals to abandon them.
Sea temperatures will also rise, leading to flooding of low-lying coastal areas and an increase in the number of severe storms. Rising temperatures on Earth can cause sea levels to rise as water warms up, becomes less dense and expands, and the expansion of sea water will lead to an overall rise in sea levels.
Rising temperatures could melt some of the perennial ice that covers some land areas, such as Antarctica or high mountain ranges. The resulting water will eventually flow into the seas, raising their levels.
It should be noted, however, that melting ice floating in the seas will not cause sea levels to rise.
The Arctic ice cover is a huge layer of floating ice. Like Antarctica, the Arctic is also surrounded by many icebergs. Climatologists have calculated that if the Greenland and Antarctic glaciers melt, the level of the World Ocean will rise by 70-80 m.
If the air temperature continues to increase, residential areas will shrink, the water-salt balance of the oceans will be disrupted, and the trajectories of cyclones and anticyclones will change.
If temperatures on Earth rise, many animals will not be able to adapt to climate change. Many plants will die from lack of moisture and animals will have to move to other places in search of food and water. If rising temperatures lead to the death of many plants, then many species of animals will also die out.
However, in addition to the negative consequences of global warming, several positive ones can be noted. Excess carbon dioxide has a particularly beneficial effect on plants growing in dry conditions. With warming and increasing carbon dioxide levels, many plants will increase photosynthesis. This means that their biomass will increase. Many scientists are sure that: “we live in more and more favorable environmental conditions. Our children will enjoy life on an Earth with many more plants and animals. This is a wonderful and unexpected gift from the industrial revolution."
According to scientists, without the greenhouse effect, the average temperature of the Earth's surface would be 30 degrees below zero and there would most likely be no life on it.
It is the greenhouse effect, being a natural blanket, that creates favorable conditions for life on Earth.
Is it possible to prevent global warming?
The governments of most countries in the world have already signed
international agreements and commitments on global warming
(UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted in 1992
and the Kyoto Protocol, adopted in 1997), and the adult world has already developed a universal recipe for mitigating climate change:
Limit the consumption of fossil fuels (especially coal and fuel oil - the most “harmful” energy sources for the climate);
Save energy consumption and increase the efficiency of its use;
Use alternative (non-carbon) energy sources;
Develop and implement new environmentally friendly and low-carbon technologies;
Prevent deforestation, protect them from forest fires, and engage in reforestation.
Conclusion
In this work, the following tasks were solved: the concept of “global warming” and the causes of global warming were considered. We carried out our own observations on climate change in the Moscow region over three years. Having analyzed our observations, it was concluded that climate warming in the Moscow region is obvious.
According to observations, it was revealed that the average annual temperature in 2010 was 5.6º, in 2011 the average annual temperature was 6.5º, in 2012 the average annual temperature was 6.6º. The difference in temperature values is +1º.
Thus, the hypothesis we put forward was fully confirmed.
List of used literature:
- Grekhankina L.F. Native Moscow region. Tutorial. Moscow, 2008
- Maksakovsky V.P. Social and economic geography of the world. Grade 10. M.: Education, 2011. With. 41-46
- Encyclopedia for children "Avanta+" Moscow ZAO "House of Books Avanta+" p.676-683
- Safonov G.V. Dangerous consequences of global climate change. – M.: RREC, GOF, WWW Russia, 2006.http://www.climatechange.ru/files/RREC_climate_change_consequences_RUS.pdf
- “Climate change: pros and cons for Russia.” Greenpeace report.http://www.greenpeace.org/russia/ru/press/reports/2921111
APPLICATIONS.
Data for 2010
Table of average monthly temperatures in 2010
January | February | March | April | May | June | July | August | September | October | november | December |
16º | 9º | 2º | 7º | 15º | 17º | 25º | 21º | 11º | 3º | 2º | 7º |
Average annual temperature = 5.6 º
Graph of average monthly temperatures in 2010
8º
11º
2º
7º
14º
19º
23º
19º
12º
6º
0 º
1º
Average annual temperature = 6.5 º
Graph of average monthly temperatures in 2011
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
november
December
6º
10º
3º
10º
15º
18º
22º
18º
13º
7º
3º
8º
Average annual temperature = 6.6 º
Graph of average monthly temperatures in 2012
Comparative indicators of average monthly temperatures
in 2010-2012
INTRODUCTION
1. Causes of climate change
2. The concept and essence of the greenhouse effect
3. Global warming and human impact on it
4. Consequences of global warming
5. Measures necessary to prevent global warming
INTRODUCTION
The world is getting warmer, and humanity is largely responsible for it, experts say. But many factors influencing climate change have not yet been studied, and others have not been studied at all.
Some dry places in Africa have become drier over the past 25 years. The rare lakes that bring water to people are drying up. Sandy winds are intensifying. The rains stopped there in the 1970s. The problem of drinking water is becoming more and more acute. According to computer models, such areas will continue to dry out and become completely uninhabitable.
Coal mining is widespread throughout the planet. Huge amounts of carbon dioxide (CO 2) are released into the atmosphere when coal is burned. As developing countries follow in the footsteps of their industrial neighbors, the volume of CO 2 will double during the 21st century.
Most experts, studying the complexity of the Earth's climate system, associate the increase in global temperature and future climate changes with an increase in the level of CO 2 in the atmospheric air.
Life has flourished on the planet for about four billion years. During this time, climate fluctuations were radical, from the Ice Age - which lasted 10,000 years - to an era of rapid warming. With each change, an indefinite number of species of life forms changed, evolved and survived. Others weakened or simply died out.
Now many experts believe that humanity is endangering the world's ecological system due to global warming caused by the so-called greenhouse effect. The evaporation of civilization's products in the form of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2) trapped enough heat reflected from the Earth's surface to cause the average temperature at the Earth's surface to rise by half a degree Celsius during the 20th century. If this direction of modern industry continues, the climate system will change everywhere - melting ice, rising sea levels, destruction of plants by droughts, turning areas into deserts, moving green areas.
But this may not be the case. The planet's climate depends on a combination of many factors, interacting individually with each other and in complex ways that are not yet fully understood. It is possible that the warming observed over the past century was due to natural fluctuations, although its rates were significantly higher than those observed during the last ten centuries. Moreover, computer simulations may not be accurate.
However, in 1995, after years of intensive study, the International Conference on Climate Change, sponsored by the United Nations, tentatively concluded that "much evidence suggests that human impacts on global climate are enormous." The extent of these influences, as experts note, is unknown, since a key factor has not been determined, including the degree to which clouds and oceans influence changes in global temperature. It may take a decade or more of additional research to rule out these uncertainties.
In the meantime, much is already known. And although the specific circumstances of human economic activity remain unclear, our ability to change the composition of the atmosphere is undeniable.
The purpose of this work is to study the problem of climate change on Earth.
Objectives of this work:
1. study the causes of climate change;
2. consider the concept and essence of the greenhouse effect;
3. define the concept of “global warming” and show the influence of humanity on it;
4. show the consequences awaiting humanity as a result of global warming; 5. consider the measures needed to prevent global warming.
1. CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
What is global climate change and why is it often called "global warming"?
One cannot but agree that the climate on Earth is changing and this is becoming a global problem for all humanity. The fact of global climate change is confirmed by scientific observations and is not disputed by most scientists. And yet there are constant discussions around this topic. Some use the term “global warming” and make apocalyptic predictions. Others predict the onset of a new “ice age” - and also make apocalyptic predictions. Still others consider climate change to be natural, and the evidence from both sides about the inevitability of the catastrophic consequences of climate change is controversial... Let's try to figure it out....
What evidence is there of climate change?
They are well known to everyone (this is noticeable even without instruments): an increase in average global temperatures (milder winters, hotter and drier summer months), melting glaciers and rising sea levels, as well as increasingly frequent and increasingly destructive typhoons and hurricanes, floods in Europe and droughts in Australia...(see also “5 climate prophecies that came true”). And in some places, for example, in Antarctica, cooling is observed.
If the climate has changed before, why is it a problem now?
Indeed, the climate of our planet is constantly changing. Everyone knows about ice ages (they are small and large), the global flood, etc. According to geological data, the average global temperature in different geological periods ranged from +7 to +27 degrees Celsius. Now the average temperature on Earth is approximately +14 o C and is still quite far from the maximum. So, what are scientists, heads of state and the public concerned about? In short, the concern is that in addition to the natural causes of climate change that have always existed, another factor is being added - anthropogenic (the result of human activity), the influence of which on climate change, according to a number of researchers, is becoming stronger every year.
What are the causes of climate change?
The main driving force of climate is the Sun. For example, uneven heating of the earth's surface (stronger near the equator) is one of the main causes of winds and ocean currents, and periods of increased solar activity are accompanied by warming and magnetic storms.
In addition, climate is affected by changes in the Earth's orbit, its magnetic field, the size of continents and oceans, and volcanic eruptions. All these are natural causes of climate change. Until recently, they, and only they, determined climate change, including the beginning and end of long-term climate cycles such as ice ages. Solar and volcanic activity can explain half of the temperature changes before 1950 (solar activity leads to higher temperatures, volcanic activity leads to lower temperatures).
Recently, one more factor has been added to natural factors - anthropogenic, i.e. caused by human activity. The main anthropogenic impact is the strengthening of the greenhouse effect, the influence of which on climate change in the last two centuries is 8 times higher than the influence of changes in solar activity.
2. THE CONCEPT AND ESSENCE OF THE GREENHOUSE EFFECT
The greenhouse effect is the delay of the planet's thermal radiation by the Earth's atmosphere. Any of us has observed the greenhouse effect: in greenhouses or greenhouses the temperature is always higher than outside. The same thing is observed on a global scale: solar energy, passing through the atmosphere, heats the surface of the Earth, but the thermal energy emitted by the Earth cannot escape back into space, since the Earth’s atmosphere retains it, acting like polyethylene in a greenhouse: it transmits short light waves from the Sun to the Earth and delays long thermal (or infrared) waves emitted by the Earth's surface. A greenhouse effect occurs. The greenhouse effect occurs due to the presence of gases in the Earth's atmosphere that have the ability to trap long waves. They are called “greenhouse” or “greenhouse” gases.
Greenhouse gases have been present in the atmosphere in small quantities (about 0.1%) since its formation. This amount was enough to maintain the Earth's thermal balance at a level suitable for life due to the greenhouse effect. This is the so-called natural greenhouse effect; if it weren’t for it, the average temperature of the Earth’s surface would be 30°C lower, i.e. not +14° C, as it is now, but -17° C.
The natural greenhouse effect does not threaten either the Earth or humanity, since the total amount of greenhouse gases was maintained at the same level due to the cycle of nature, moreover, we owe our lives to it.
But an increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere leads to an increase in the greenhouse effect and disruption of the Earth’s thermal balance. This is exactly what happened in the last two centuries of civilization. Coal-fired power plants, car exhaust, factory chimneys and other human-made sources of pollution emit about 22 billion tons of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere each year.
What gases are called “greenhouse” gases?
The most widely known and widespread greenhouse gases are water vapor(H 2 O), carbon dioxide(CO2), methane(CH 4) and laughing gas or nitrous oxide (N 2 O). These are direct greenhouse gases. Most of them are formed during the combustion of organic fuel.
In addition, there are two more groups of direct greenhouse gases, these are halocarbons And sulfur hexafluoride(SF6). Their emissions into the atmosphere are associated with modern technologies and industrial processes (electronics and refrigeration equipment). Their quantity in the atmosphere is absolutely negligible, but their influence on the greenhouse effect (the so-called global warming potential/GWP) is tens of thousands of times stronger than CO 2 .
Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas, responsible for more than 60% of the natural greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in its concentration in the atmosphere has not yet been observed. At the same time, an increase in the Earth's temperature, caused by other factors, increases the evaporation of ocean water, which can lead to an increase in the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere and to an increase in the greenhouse effect. On the other hand, clouds in the atmosphere reflect direct sunlight, which reduces the energy input to the Earth and, accordingly, reduces the greenhouse effect.
Carbon dioxide is the most widely known of the greenhouse gases. Natural sources of CO 2 are volcanic emissions and the vital activity of organisms. Anthropogenic sources include the combustion of fossil fuels (including forest fires), as well as a number of industrial processes (for example, cement production, glass production). Carbon dioxide, according to most researchers, is primarily responsible for global warming caused by the greenhouse effect. CO 2 concentrations have increased by more than 30% over two centuries of industrialization and are correlated with changes in average global temperature.
Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas. It is released due to leakage during the development of coal and natural gas deposits, from pipelines, during the combustion of biomass, in landfills (as a component of biogas), as well as in agriculture (cattle breeding, rice growing), etc. Livestock farming, fertilizer use, coal combustion and other sources produce about 250 million tons of methane per year. The amount of methane in the atmosphere is small, but its greenhouse effect, or global warming potential (GWP), is 21 times greater than CO 2.
Nitrous oxide is the third most important greenhouse gas: its impact is 310 times stronger than CO 2, but it is found in very small quantities in the atmosphere. It enters the atmosphere as a result of the vital activity of plants and animals, as well as during the production and use of mineral fertilizers, and the operation of chemical industry enterprises.
Halocarbons (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) are gases created to replace ozone-depleting substances. Mainly used in refrigeration equipment. They have exceptionally high coefficients of influence on the greenhouse effect: 140-11700 times higher than that of CO 2. Their emissions (release into the environment) are small, but are increasing rapidly.
Sulfur hexafluoride - its release into the atmosphere is associated with electronics and the production of insulating materials. While it is small, the volume is constantly increasing. The global warming potential is 23,900 units.
3. GLOBAL WARMING AND HUMAN IMPACT ON IT
Global warming is a gradual increase in the average temperature on our planet caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases in the Earth's atmosphere.
According to direct climate observations (temperature changes over the past two hundred years), average temperatures on Earth have increased, and although the reasons for this increase are still the subject of debate, one of the most widely discussed is the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. An anthropogenic increase in the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere disrupts the natural thermal balance of the planet, enhances the greenhouse effect, and, as a result, causes global warming.
This is a slow and gradual process. Thus, over the past 100 years the average temperature The Earth increased by only 1 o C. It would seem not much. What, then, is alarming the world community and forcing the governments of many countries to take measures to reduce greenhouse gas emissions?
Firstly, this was enough to cause the melting of polar ice and a rise in sea levels with all the ensuing consequences.
And secondly, some processes are easier to start than to stop. For example, as a result of the melting of permafrost rocks in the subarctic, huge amounts of methane enter the atmosphere, which further enhances the greenhouse effect. And the desalination of the ocean due to melting ice will cause a change in the warm Gulf Stream, which will affect the climate of Europe. Thus, global warming will trigger changes that will in turn accelerate climate change. We started a chain reaction...
How big is the human impact on global warming?
The idea of humanity's significant contribution to the greenhouse effect (and therefore to global warming) is supported by most governments, scientists, public organizations and the media, but is not yet a definitively established truth.
Some argue that: the concentration of carbon dioxide and methane in the atmosphere since the pre-industrial period (since 1750) has increased by 34% and 160%, respectively. Moreover, it has not reached this level for hundreds of thousands of years. This is clearly related to the increase in consumption of fuel resources and the development of industry. And it is confirmed by the coincidence of the graph of the increase in carbon dioxide concentration with the graph of the increase in temperature.
Others object: 50-60 times more carbon dioxide is dissolved in the surface layer of the World Ocean than in the atmosphere. Compared to this, the human impact is simply negligible. In addition, the ocean has the ability to absorb CO 2 and thereby compensate for human impacts.
At the same time, more and more evidence has recently emerged in favor of the influence of human activity on global climate change. Here are just a few of them.
1. the southern part of the world's oceans has lost its ability to absorb significant amounts of carbon dioxide, and this will further accelerate global warming on the planet
2. The flow of heat coming to the Earth from the Sun has been decreasing in the last five years, but the earth is experiencing not cooling, but warming...
How much will the temperature rise?
According to some climate change scenarios, by 2100 the average global temperature could rise by 1.4 to 5.8 degrees Celsius - unless steps are taken to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, periods of hot weather may become longer and more extreme in temperature. However, the development of the situation will vary greatly depending on the region of the Earth, and these differences are extremely difficult to predict. For example, for Europe, a not very long period of cooling is predicted at first due to the slowdown and possible change in the Gulf Stream.
4. CONSEQUENCES OF GLOBAL WARMING
Global warming will greatly affect the lives of some animals. For example, polar bears, seals and penguins will be forced to change their habitats as polar ice disappears. Many species of animals and plants will also disappear without having time to adapt to the rapidly changing environment. 250 million years ago, global warming killed three-quarters of all life on Earth
Global warming will change the climate on a global scale. An increase in the number of climate disasters, an increase in the number of floods due to hurricanes, desertification and a reduction in summer precipitation by 15-20% in the main agricultural areas, an increase in ocean levels and temperatures, and the boundaries of natural zones are expected to shift to the north.
Moreover, according to some forecasts, global warming will cause the onset of the Little Ice Age. In the 19th century, the cause of such cooling was volcanic eruptions, in our century the cause is already different - desalination of the world's oceans as a result of melting glaciers
How will global warming affect humans?
In the short term: a shortage of drinking water, an increase in the number of infectious diseases, problems in agriculture due to droughts, an increase in the number of deaths due to floods, hurricanes, heat and drought.
The biggest blow may fall on the poorest countries, which are least responsible for exacerbating the problem and least prepared for climate change. Warming and rising temperatures may ultimately reverse all the hard work of previous generations.
Destruction of established and customary agricultural systems under the influence of droughts, irregular rainfall, etc. could actually bring about 600 million people to the brink of famine. By 2080, 1.8 billion people will experience severe water shortages. And in Asia and China, due to melting glaciers and changes in precipitation patterns, an environmental crisis may occur.
An increase in temperature by 1.5-4.5°C will lead to a rise in sea level by 40-120 cm (according to some calculations, up to 5 meters). This means the inundation of many small islands and flooding in coastal areas. About 100 million people will be in flood-prone areas, more than 300 million people will be forced to migrate, and some states will disappear (for example, the Netherlands, Denmark, part of Germany).
The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that the health of hundreds of millions of people could be at risk as a result of the spread of malaria (due to an increase in the number of mosquitoes in flooded areas), intestinal infections (due to disruption of water supply systems), etc.
In the long term, this may lead to the next stage of human evolution. Our ancestors faced a similar problem when the temperature rose sharply by 10°C after the Ice Age, but this is what led to the creation of our civilization.
Experts do not have accurate data on what humanity’s contribution to the observed increase in temperatures on Earth is and what the chain reaction may be.
The exact relationship between rising concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere and rising temperatures is also unknown. This is one reason temperature forecasts vary so widely. And this gives food to skeptics: some scientists consider the problem of global warming to be somewhat exaggerated, as are the data on the increase in average temperature on Earth.
Scientists do not have a consensus on what the final balance of positive and negative effects of climate change may be, and according to which scenario the situation will develop further.
Some scientists believe that several factors may reduce the effect of global warming: As temperatures rise, plant growth will accelerate, which will allow plants to take more carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.
Others believe that the possible negative consequences of global climate change are underestimated:
· droughts, cyclones, storms and floods will become more frequent,
An increase in the temperature of the world's oceans also causes an increase in the strength of hurricanes,
· the rate of glacier melting and sea level rise will also be faster…. And this is confirmed by the latest research data.
· Already, the ocean level has increased by 4 cm instead of the predicted 2 cm, the rate of glacier melting has increased 3 times (the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by 60-70 cm, and the area of non-melting ice of the Arctic Ocean has decreased by 14% in 2005 alone).
· It is possible that human activity has already doomed the ice cover to complete disappearance, which could result in a several times greater increase in sea level (by 5-7 meters instead of 40-60 cm).
· Moreover, according to some data, global warming may occur much faster than previously thought due to the release of carbon dioxide from ecosystems, including from the World Ocean.
· And finally, we must not forget that global warming may be followed by global cooling.
At the same time, whatever the scenario, everything suggests that we must stop playing dangerous games with the planet and reduce our impact on it. It is better to overestimate the danger than to underestimate it. It’s better to do everything possible to prevent it than to bite yourself later. He who is forewarned is forearmed.
5. MEASURES NEEDED TO PREVENT GLOBAL WARMING
The international community, recognizing the danger associated with the constant increase in greenhouse gas emissions, agreed to sign the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) at the 1992 Rio de Janeiro Conference on Environment and Development.
In December 1997, the Kyoto Protocol was adopted in Kyoto (Japan), which obliges industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5% from 1990 levels by 2008-2012, including the European Union must reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 8% , USA - by 7%, Japan - by 6%. Russia and Ukraine are content to keep their emissions below 1990 levels, and 3 countries (Australia, Iceland and Norway) may even increase their emissions because they have forests that absorb CO 2 .
For the Kyoto Protocol to enter into force, it must be ratified by states that account for at least 55% of greenhouse gas emissions. To date, the protocol has been ratified by 161 countries (more than 61% of global emissions). In Russia, the Kyoto Protocol was ratified in 2004. Notable exceptions were the United States and Australia, which make a significant contribution to the greenhouse effect, but refused to ratify the protocol.
In 2007, a new protocol was signed in Bali, expanding the list of measures that need to be taken to reduce the anthropogenic impact on climate change.
Here are some of them:
1. Reduce burning of fossil fuels
Today, 80% of our energy comes from fossil fuels, the combustion of which is the main source of greenhouse gases.
2. Use renewable energy sources more widely.
Solar and wind energy, biomass energy and geothermal energy, tidal energy - today the use of alternative energy sources is becoming a key factor for the long-term sustainable development of humanity.
3. Stop destroying ecosystems!
All attacks on pristine ecosystems must stop. Natural ecosystems absorb CO 2 and are an important element in maintaining the CO 2 balance. Forests are especially good at this. But in many regions of the world, forests continue to be destroyed at catastrophic rates.
4. Reduce energy losses during energy production and transportation
The transition from large-scale energy (hydroelectric power plants, thermal power plants, nuclear power plants) to small local power plants will reduce energy losses. When transporting energy over long distances, up to 50% of the energy can be lost along the way!
5. Use new energy-efficient technologies in industry
Currently, the efficiency of most technologies used is about 30%! It is necessary to introduce new energy-efficient production technologies.
6. Reduce energy consumption in the construction and housing sector.
Regulations should be adopted requiring the use of energy-efficient materials and technologies in the construction of new buildings, which will reduce energy consumption in homes by several times.
7. New laws and incentives.
Laws should be passed to impose higher taxes on businesses that exceed CO2 emission limits and provide tax incentives for producers of renewable energy and energy-efficient products. Redirect financial flows to the development of these technologies and industries.
8. New ways to travel
Today, in large cities, vehicle emissions account for 60-80% of all emissions. It is necessary to encourage the use of new environmentally friendly modes of transport, support public transport, and develop infrastructure for cyclists.
9. Promote and encourage energy conservation and careful use of natural resources by residents of all countries
These measures will reduce greenhouse gas emissions by developed countries by 80% by 2050, and by developing countries by 30% by 2030.
ZCONCLUSION
Recently, the problem of the greenhouse effect has become more and more acute. The global climate situation requires urgent action. Proof of this can be seen in some of the consequences of the greenhouse effect that are already evident today.
Wet areas become even wetter. Continuous rains, which cause a sharp increase in the level of rivers and lakes, are becoming more frequent. Overflowing rivers are flooding coastal settlements, forcing residents to flee their homes to save their lives.
Intense rains occurred in March 1997 in the United States. Many people died, and damage was estimated at $400 million. This continuous rainfall is becoming more intense and is caused by global warming. Warm air can hold more moisture, and Europe's atmosphere already has much more moisture than it did 25 years ago. Where will the new rains fall? Experts say areas prone to flooding should prepare for further disasters.
In contrast, dry areas have become drier. The world is experiencing droughts as intense as they have not been seen for 69 years. Drought is destroying corn fields in America. In 1998, corn, which typically grows two meters or more, only grew to a person's waist.
At the same time, despite these natural warnings, humanity does not take measures to reduce emissions into the atmosphere. If humanity continues to behave so irresponsibly towards its planet, then no one knows what other disasters this will result in.
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